Current record: 9-8
Last week, we were able to maintain our overall positive record in the Best Bets series with a .500 week. Finishing 2-2 puts us in a position to really go out ahead of that .500 mark this week. The Titans were the biggest disappointment of the week last week, losing to the New York Jets. It turns out, if AJ Brown and Julio Jones are out, there’s not a whole lot of options outside of Derrick Henry. Zach Wilson did prove me right and wrong though. I said he would continue to turn the ball over and he did that. However, he was able to bounce back from the one costly mistake he made all game. But enough with the past, it’s time to layout our best bets for week 5 in the NFL. We have a very short card with only three games, but I believe we can go 3-0 in those games this week to record our first perfect week of the season.
New England Patriots @ Houston Texans (+7.5)
At face value, this is a pick that may shock a few people. A quick look at the Patriots’ inactive list for this week tells you why the Texans will cover in this game. The Patriots will be missing four starting offensive linemen this week. The only starter who will be available upfront will be David Andrews at the center position. Both guards and tackles are either injured or being held out due to COVID protocols this week. On top of that, they will be missing their weak-side cornerback in Jalen Mills.
Mills has been one of the biggest surprises for the Patriots. He has picked up the defensive schemes nicely and has been shut down in coverage. We will likely see JoeJuan Williams, who has been inactive the last two weeks, fill those shoes. It is still the Houston Texans, and Davis Mills is still their quarterback, so I believe the Patriots will win this game. However, a two-possession seems unlikely for the injury-riddled Patriots. I see this being a low-scoring game and the Patriots winning 16-12.
Miami Dolphins @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10)
I am officially waving the white flag on my belief that the Dolphins are a good football team. Jacoby Brissett really limits an already underwhelming Dolphins offense. Also, the defense is just not as good as advertised at the start of the season. Miami is currently averaging 15.5 points per game while allowing 27.25 through the first four games of the season. Tampa Bay has one of the most dynamic offenses in football, and they will score at will against the Fins. Brady has had his fair share of struggles against the Dolphins throughout his career. He is the type of guy to use that as extra motivation going into this game.
Last week, the Bucs were able to find a lot of success on the ground. If that trend continues, that will allow them to dominate the time of possession. Adding a consistent run-game to this offense was really the last piece to make this offense virtually unstoppable. The Dolphins will have a hard time putting up any sort of fight in this game. I think it’s over by halftime and Tampa Bay wins 31-13.
Tennessee Titans (-4.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
As I mentioned, the Titans suffered a pretty disappointing loss to the New York Jets last week and will look to get things back on track. Julio Jones and AJ Brown both return to the lineup this week to help alleviate the workload from Derrick Henry. I think Tannehill and the Titans’ offense will look to get those guys involved early and often in this game against their division rivals.
Without getting into detail, the Jaguars haven’t exactly had an ideal week of headlines going into this game. Let’s just say that the chances of this being Urban Meyer’s swan song as the Jaguars’ head coach are likely higher than the chances of them winning this game are. Urban Meyer has been the main thing holding this team back from being competitive, and the team is quickly starting to realize that. Rumors have even surfaced that the team has completely lost respect for his authority and closed-door meeting are already taking place about his future as the Jaguars’ head coach. I think the Titans put Urban out of his misery with a double-digit beatdown in Jacksonville. I see the Titans winning 27-16.
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